Drones made the president’s son-in-law a household name. His techno-nationalism and popular appeal could make him the country’s next leader.
Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2002. Although the recent election suggests it will remain unchallenged as the country’s ruling party, it nonetheless faces an uncertain future. Its extraordinary congress that begins on Oct. 7 is supposed to chart a course that ensures victory in the upcoming local elections in 2024.
Over the past two decades, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has empowered Turkey’s religious conservatives. But conservatism is now being eclipsed by a new nationalism. Nationalism, always a powerful force in Turkish politics, is fed by a heightened sense of national insecurity in a geopolitically volatile environment. But this fraught context simultaneously offers opportunities for projecting power, which in turn stimulates an assertive nationalism. Meanwhile, the growth of a military-industrial sector that is increasingly important in strategic and economic terms is reconfiguring the ideological superstructure, with nationalism replacing conservatism as the hegemonic force.
Erdogan’s recent campaign shows he is trying to ride this wave, but the AKP’s future prospects will be determined by the extent to which the party succeeds in uniting secular and religious nationalists who, according to polls, together constitute as many as 75 percent of voters.
In the longer term, to stay in power, Turkey’s ruling party must broaden its appeal. The conservative AKP lost support in the election to parliament in May, dropping to 35.6 percent, from 42.6 percent in 2018. Crucially, Erdogan, who is also the AKP leader and was comfortably reelected, has said that “2023 is the last time I ask for the support of the nation,” and that he will “pass the sacred banner on to the youth” after the 2023 election—which raises the question of who his successor might be.
Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar, the chairman of the board and chief technology officer of the Turkish aerospace group Baykar and the producer of the famous drones and unmanned aircraft that bear his name, may be best placed to fulfill that mission. Turkey’s military-technological achievements have catapulted Bayraktar to public prominence, and he actively propagates a popular form of techno-nationalism that transcends the secular-religious divide.
On Sept. 1, Bayraktar for the first time indicated that he’s considering entering politics. “My ambition was never to enter politics or to become president, but to pioneer the Turkish aerospace industry. But if the struggle for national technology so requires, I will of course not be intimidated [from seeking office] and turn back,” he stated in an interview with Turkish media.
In yet another statement on Sept. 28, he reiterated his determination, if need be, to enter politics, saying, “If attempts are made by people with foreign agendas to raise hurdles in the way of Turkey’s drive for independence in military technology, I’m ready for all kinds of struggle.” In a sign that the U.S. government recognizes that Bayraktar may indeed be destined for high office, Bayraktar was invited on board the USS Gerald R. Ford during the U.S.-Turkish joint naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean in late August, accompanied by the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Flake.
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